Thursday, July 23, 2009

Ugly Math

I forget where I saw an op-ed wondering if this recession might just defy any sort of stimulus, but I wonder if the stubborn recession we now see might just be one that normal actions by government cannot resolve.

There are some greater forces working in the economy that have us in this persistent trough that are unlike things we've seen before. Namely . . .

1) the aging and retiring of the baby-boomers (with all sorts of implications on savings, household income, and consumption) coupled with . . .

2) . . . the relative paucity of the following generations into the workforce. Also, there is . . .

3) . . . Americans' awakening to burdensome debts, especially with homes and college education, and finally . . .

4) . . . the profit-margin-destroying transparency the internet and e-commerce has brought to the economy.

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